Hierarchical Technology Foresight Framework / Shady Radwan

Supervisor: Tarek Khalil

Thesis (M.A.)—Nile University, Egypt, 2018 .

"Includes bibliographical references"

Contents:
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1
1.1. Preface ................................................................................................................. 1
1.2. Thesis outline........................................................................................................ 2
2. Technology foresight ................................................................................................... 4
2.1. What is technology foresight? ............................................................................... 4
2.2. Technology foresight from different perspectives ................................................. 9
2.3. The introduction of logical lenses ........................................................................ 10
2.3.1. Context of technology foresight: ................................................................... 11
2.3.2. Technology foresight concepts: .................................................................... 14
2.3.3. Technology foresight tactics: ........................................................................ 20
2.4. Summary of chapter 2 ........................................................................................ 25
3. Research problem & objectives ................................................................................. 26
3.1. Problem statement .............................................................................................. 26
3.2. Research objectives: .......................................................................................... 26
3.3. Research questions: ........................................................................................... 26
3.4. Research significance ......................................................................................... 27
3.5. Research limitations: .......................................................................................... 27
4. Research methodology ............................................................................................. 28
5. Framework synthesis ................................................................................................ 31
5.1. Framework outline .............................................................................................. 31
5.2. Framework population ........................................................................................ 32
5.2.1. Contextual layer: TF as a policy making instrument ..................................... 33
5.2.2. Conceptual layer: TF as a process ............................................................... 34
5.2.3. Tactical layer: TF as a project ...................................................................... 38
5.2.4. Preliminary design of the proposed framework ............................................ 39
5.3. Enhancing framework consistency ..................................................................... 40
iv
5.4. Framework dynamics .......................................................................................... 42
5.5. Framework synthesis conclusion ........................................................................ 44
6. Framework testing (Case study) ............................................................................... 46
6.1. “Egypt Leaps” TF Exercise ................................................................................. 47
6.2. Mapping case study onto the framework ............................................................ 49
6.2.1. Mapping using layers and phases ................................................................ 50
6.2.2. Mapping using inter-layers dynamics ........................................................... 52
6.3. Analysis of mapping results ................................................................................ 55
6.3.1. Analysis of mapping results - layers and phases ......................................... 55
6.3.2. Analysis of mapping results - inter-layers dynamics ..................................... 57
6.4. Concluding results .............................................................................................. 58
7. Conclusions & recommendation ................................................................................ 60
7.1. Summary & conclusions ..................................................................................... 60
7.2. Future work ......................................................................................................... 62
8. References ...............................

Abstract:
Technology foresight is an important practice currently embraced by a lot of governments in order to tackle future challenges imposed by the rapid development of advanced technology. It has been practiced in developed countries since the 1970’s. Yet the current state of its related scientific literature is still immature. Technology foresight literature handles the practice as one monolithic activity, despite the fact that it is an expansive and a complex practice. This immaturity of technology foresight theory has been selected by this research work as the foundation of its research problem.
As a first step the research work proposed three perspectives through which technology foresight practice can be viewed. These perspectives are referred to in this thesis as logical lenses. These logical lenses are used in reviewing related literature and categorizing the issues within foresight practice as described in the literature.
The three logical lenses are called; contextual, conceptual, and tactical. The contextual logical lens views technology foresight from a high-level perspective, in terms of interaction between the technology foresight life cycle and the policy making life cycle. The conceptual logical lens focuses on the technology foresight life cycle, in terms of the phases that a technology foresight exercise follows in order to provide its outcomes. The tactical logical lens focuses on technology foresight from a low-level perspective. It focuses on the tactical aspects of technology foresight exercises.
The research work then poses the following research question: “How can the three proposed logical lenses (contextual, conceptual, and tactical) be used to develop a hierarchical framework that describes the dynamics of technology foresight practice?” The research work answers this question by proposing a consolidated hierarchical framework to describe the technology foresight practice using the proposed logical lenses.
A technology foresight case study that is already in action in Egypt supported by international consultancy groups is then chosen to test how well the proposed framework fits a real-life exercise. This is done by mapping the case study onto the proposed framework. The results of this mapping activity is discussed in this thesis. The mapping step shows good coherency between the proposed framework and the chosen case study.

Text in English, abstracts in English.