Decision analysis for management judgment / Paul Goodwin, George Wright.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

How people make decision involving multiple objectives -- Decision involving multiple objectives -- Decision involving multiple objectives: alternatives to Smart -- Introduction to probability -- Decision-making under uncertainty -- Decision trees and influence diagrams -- Applying simulation to decision problems -- Revising judgments in the light of new information -- Heuristics and biases in probability assessment -- Method for eliciting probabilities -- Risk and uncertainty management -- Decision involving groups of individuals -- Resource allocation and negotiation problems -- Decision framing and cognitive inertia -- Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty -- Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions -- Suggested answers to selected questions.

In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is a unique textbook in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. This textbook covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This textbook draws together ideas from management science, statistics and psychology to present techniques and approaches to decision making.

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