Sustainability Assessment Of Technology In Waste Management System Using System Dynamic Approach /
Mahmoud Sherif Mahmoud
Sustainability Assessment Of Technology In Waste Management System Using System Dynamic Approach / Mahmoud Sherif Mahmoud - 2019 - 95 p. ill. 21 cm.
Supervisor: Tarek Khalil
Thesis (M.A.)—Nile University, Egypt, 2019 .
"Includes bibliographical references"
Contents:
Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION............................................................................................. 1
1.1. Research Background..................................................................................... 1
1.2. Waste Management Critical problem in Developing Countries .................... 2
1.2.1. Challenges in developing countries ........................................................ 2
1.3. Basics of waste management technology ....................................................... 7
1.4. Rational for Sustainability Assessment of Technology in Waste Management Systems ............................................................................................... 9
1.5. Review of Sustainability Assessment Models ............................................. 10
1.6. System Dynamics Approach ........................................................................ 12
Chapter 2 BASICS OF WASTE MANAGAMENT SYSTEMS..................................... 14
2.1. Chapter overview ......................................................................................... 14
2.2. Definition of waste: ...................................................................................... 14
2.3. Waste management ...................................................................................... 15
2.4. Problem of waste management around the world ........................................ 17
2.5. Waste management challenges in Developing countries: ............................ 20
Chapter 3 TECHNOLOGY SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT .................................. 26
3.1. Chapter overview ............................................................................................. 26
3.2. Technology and Technology assessment (TA) ............................................ 26
3.3. The sustainability factor ............................................................................... 28
3.4. Sustainability assessment: ............................................................................ 30
3.4.1. Sustainability assessment based on cost benefit analysis ..................... 30
3.4.2. Sustainability assessment based on life cycle analysis. ........................ 31
3.4.3. Sustainability assessment based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). ............................................................................................................. 32
3.4.4. Rockefeller Foundation approach (MESMIS) ...................................... 33
3.4.5. Drawbacks of existing models for sustainability assessment ............... 33
3.5. System dynamic method .............................................................................. 36
3.5.1. System dynamic approach and waste management .............................. 37
3.5.2. System dynamic modelling ................................................................... 38
vi
3.6. Limitations of system dynamics................................................................... 39
3.6.1. Description of the decision rules........................................................... 39
3.6.2. Choice of model boundary .................................................................... 40
3.6.3. Quantification of soft variables............................................................. 40
Chapter 4 PROBLEM STATMENT, OBJECTIVES AND RESEARCH METHODS ... 41
4.1. Chapter overview ......................................................................................... 41
4.2. Problem Statement ....................................................................................... 41
4.3. Objectives of the research work ................................................................... 41
4.4. Sub-objectives of the Study.......................................................................... 42
4.5. Research methodology ................................................................................. 43
4.5.1. Simulation software .............................................................................. 43
Chapter 5 THE DESIGN OF SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL ........................................ 44
5.1. Chapter overview ......................................................................................... 44
5.2. Model boundary ............................................................................................... 44
5.3. Developing a system structure: ........................................................................ 47
Chapter 6 THE IMPLEMENTATION OF (WMTSA) MODEL ON THE CASE OF JOZOUR COMPANY ...................................................................................................... 60
6.1. Chapter overview ............................................................................................. 60
6.2. Study medium - “Jozour Company for recycling agriculture waste” .......... 60
6.3. The rational of choosing Jozour as a case study: ......................................... 61
6.4. Simulating (WMTSA) on Jozour’s case study:............................................ 61
6.4.1. Simulation scenarios. ............................................................................ 61
6.4.2. Scenario one; current situation.............................................................. 63
6.4.3. Scenario two: Increasing product price................................................. 66
6.4.4. Scenario three: Decreasing cost of production line and increasing capacity of production line.................................................................................. 69
6.4.5. Scenario four: Increasing price, increasing system capacity and decreasing cost of production line ...................................................................... 72
6.5. Investigating the gap between the model and the reality ............................. 75
6.6. Summary of scenarios results....................................................................... 75
Chapter 7 CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE WORK ................. 77
7.1. Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 77
7.2 Recommendation for future work ..................................................................... 77
REFERENCES ..
Abstract:
The research started with discussing the state of waste management practices in developing countries, it was found that waste management represents major problem in most of urbanized cities. The situation in Waste management systems is critical especially in developing countries and the problem of disability to deal with waste in effective and efficient way is becoming more urgent and complicated every day. Struggling economies in developing countries cannot afford failure in waste management systems for many reasons among which: 1) Waste management system draws high Capital Cost (CAPEX) so its failure means losing much money that was hard to get in the first place. 2) The impact of inadequate waste management systems leads to high negative impact on the economic, environment and social pillars which result in a very high cost.
Hence, the problem is “how decision makers can choose which waste management technology should be adopted to reach the required level of sustainability and efficiency of the waste management system”.
This study aimed to give decision makers in developing countries a tool to compare effectively between different waste management technologies in order to eliminate the risk of failure of the waste management system.
Sustainability was defined as system’s ability to sustain acceptable level of performance over time despite any changes in the surrounding environment. In order to compare sustainability of various systems many sustainability assessment approaches were studies such as A) Tools Based on cost benefit analysis B) Tools Based on life cycle analysis. C) Tools Based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA).
The study shows that system dynamic approach is the best option to be used in assessing the sustainability of waste management technology system. In order to check the accuracy of the suggested system dynamic approach, economic sustainability simulation model was applied on a case study of a recycling company called Jozour. Jozour company was established in 2013 with the aim of making high valuable products out of agriculture waste in Egypt through developing innovative local technologies.
When the model was simulated the result was not as expected. Despite that Jozour’s technology produce a high value product it was considered as unsustainable technology from economic sustainability point of view. The system dynamic approach showed high level of accuracy since the results of the simulation run were similar to what happened in the company long while after applying the model as the company shut down its operations.
Text in English, abstracts in English.
MOT
Dissertation, Academic
658.4
Sustainability Assessment Of Technology In Waste Management System Using System Dynamic Approach / Mahmoud Sherif Mahmoud - 2019 - 95 p. ill. 21 cm.
Supervisor: Tarek Khalil
Thesis (M.A.)—Nile University, Egypt, 2019 .
"Includes bibliographical references"
Contents:
Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION............................................................................................. 1
1.1. Research Background..................................................................................... 1
1.2. Waste Management Critical problem in Developing Countries .................... 2
1.2.1. Challenges in developing countries ........................................................ 2
1.3. Basics of waste management technology ....................................................... 7
1.4. Rational for Sustainability Assessment of Technology in Waste Management Systems ............................................................................................... 9
1.5. Review of Sustainability Assessment Models ............................................. 10
1.6. System Dynamics Approach ........................................................................ 12
Chapter 2 BASICS OF WASTE MANAGAMENT SYSTEMS..................................... 14
2.1. Chapter overview ......................................................................................... 14
2.2. Definition of waste: ...................................................................................... 14
2.3. Waste management ...................................................................................... 15
2.4. Problem of waste management around the world ........................................ 17
2.5. Waste management challenges in Developing countries: ............................ 20
Chapter 3 TECHNOLOGY SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT .................................. 26
3.1. Chapter overview ............................................................................................. 26
3.2. Technology and Technology assessment (TA) ............................................ 26
3.3. The sustainability factor ............................................................................... 28
3.4. Sustainability assessment: ............................................................................ 30
3.4.1. Sustainability assessment based on cost benefit analysis ..................... 30
3.4.2. Sustainability assessment based on life cycle analysis. ........................ 31
3.4.3. Sustainability assessment based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). ............................................................................................................. 32
3.4.4. Rockefeller Foundation approach (MESMIS) ...................................... 33
3.4.5. Drawbacks of existing models for sustainability assessment ............... 33
3.5. System dynamic method .............................................................................. 36
3.5.1. System dynamic approach and waste management .............................. 37
3.5.2. System dynamic modelling ................................................................... 38
vi
3.6. Limitations of system dynamics................................................................... 39
3.6.1. Description of the decision rules........................................................... 39
3.6.2. Choice of model boundary .................................................................... 40
3.6.3. Quantification of soft variables............................................................. 40
Chapter 4 PROBLEM STATMENT, OBJECTIVES AND RESEARCH METHODS ... 41
4.1. Chapter overview ......................................................................................... 41
4.2. Problem Statement ....................................................................................... 41
4.3. Objectives of the research work ................................................................... 41
4.4. Sub-objectives of the Study.......................................................................... 42
4.5. Research methodology ................................................................................. 43
4.5.1. Simulation software .............................................................................. 43
Chapter 5 THE DESIGN OF SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL ........................................ 44
5.1. Chapter overview ......................................................................................... 44
5.2. Model boundary ............................................................................................... 44
5.3. Developing a system structure: ........................................................................ 47
Chapter 6 THE IMPLEMENTATION OF (WMTSA) MODEL ON THE CASE OF JOZOUR COMPANY ...................................................................................................... 60
6.1. Chapter overview ............................................................................................. 60
6.2. Study medium - “Jozour Company for recycling agriculture waste” .......... 60
6.3. The rational of choosing Jozour as a case study: ......................................... 61
6.4. Simulating (WMTSA) on Jozour’s case study:............................................ 61
6.4.1. Simulation scenarios. ............................................................................ 61
6.4.2. Scenario one; current situation.............................................................. 63
6.4.3. Scenario two: Increasing product price................................................. 66
6.4.4. Scenario three: Decreasing cost of production line and increasing capacity of production line.................................................................................. 69
6.4.5. Scenario four: Increasing price, increasing system capacity and decreasing cost of production line ...................................................................... 72
6.5. Investigating the gap between the model and the reality ............................. 75
6.6. Summary of scenarios results....................................................................... 75
Chapter 7 CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE WORK ................. 77
7.1. Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 77
7.2 Recommendation for future work ..................................................................... 77
REFERENCES ..
Abstract:
The research started with discussing the state of waste management practices in developing countries, it was found that waste management represents major problem in most of urbanized cities. The situation in Waste management systems is critical especially in developing countries and the problem of disability to deal with waste in effective and efficient way is becoming more urgent and complicated every day. Struggling economies in developing countries cannot afford failure in waste management systems for many reasons among which: 1) Waste management system draws high Capital Cost (CAPEX) so its failure means losing much money that was hard to get in the first place. 2) The impact of inadequate waste management systems leads to high negative impact on the economic, environment and social pillars which result in a very high cost.
Hence, the problem is “how decision makers can choose which waste management technology should be adopted to reach the required level of sustainability and efficiency of the waste management system”.
This study aimed to give decision makers in developing countries a tool to compare effectively between different waste management technologies in order to eliminate the risk of failure of the waste management system.
Sustainability was defined as system’s ability to sustain acceptable level of performance over time despite any changes in the surrounding environment. In order to compare sustainability of various systems many sustainability assessment approaches were studies such as A) Tools Based on cost benefit analysis B) Tools Based on life cycle analysis. C) Tools Based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA).
The study shows that system dynamic approach is the best option to be used in assessing the sustainability of waste management technology system. In order to check the accuracy of the suggested system dynamic approach, economic sustainability simulation model was applied on a case study of a recycling company called Jozour. Jozour company was established in 2013 with the aim of making high valuable products out of agriculture waste in Egypt through developing innovative local technologies.
When the model was simulated the result was not as expected. Despite that Jozour’s technology produce a high value product it was considered as unsustainable technology from economic sustainability point of view. The system dynamic approach showed high level of accuracy since the results of the simulation run were similar to what happened in the company long while after applying the model as the company shut down its operations.
Text in English, abstracts in English.
MOT
Dissertation, Academic
658.4